Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3878 · SAT → DFW
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.