Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3886 · GNV → DFW
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 8:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave GNV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from GNV are usually not late
Weather at each end
GNV (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.