Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3912 · DFW → BNA
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 8:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.