Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3918 LANDED 9:09 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB

took off 8:34 AM CT · landed 9:09 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into GRB at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRB (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3918 · ORD → GRB

Odds over time