Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3932
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3932 · GSO → ORD
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at GSO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 1.09 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.