MQ 3948 · ORD → ELP

departs 9:34 PM CT · arrives 12:02 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ELP is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3948 · ORD → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?