Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3968
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3968 · DFW → AEX
departs 8:56 AM CT · arrives 10:14 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at AEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AEX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AEX that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into AEX at that hour are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
AEX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.73 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.