MQ 3983 · LRD → DFW

took off 10:56 AM CT · expected to land 11:56 AM CT (scheduled 10:43 AM CT → 12:19 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LRD that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ 10am departures from LRD are usually not late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LRD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3983 · LRD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?