Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3996 · EYW → ORD
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.