MQ 4001 · GJT → DFW

departs 5:14 PM MT · arrives 8:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GJT

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

GJT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4001 · GJT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?