MQ 4002 · ORD → GSP

took off 10:04 AM CT · landed 12:26 PM ET (scheduled 9:43 AM CT → 12:37 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at GSP that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ GSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4002 · ORD → GSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to GSP?