MQ 4014 · GJT → DFW

departs 1:19 PM MT · arrives 4:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GJT

↓ 1pm departures from GJT are usually not late

Weather at each end

GJT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4014 · GJT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?