MQ 4016 · DFW → ILM

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 3:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

ILM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4016 · DFW → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?