MQ 4016 · ILM → DFW

departs 4:27 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.28 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4016 · ILM → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?