MQ 4019 · RAP → PHX

departs 11:53 AM MT · arrives 1:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ RAP is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4019 · RAP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?