Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 4021 · PHX → CLD
departs 5:20 PM MT · arrives 6:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 16%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CLD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLD
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.