Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4036
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4036 · MQT → ORD
departs 7:45 AM ET · arrives 8:31 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MQT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MQT that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
MQT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.