MQ 4039 · DFW → SAT

departs 9:57 AM CT · arrives 11:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4039 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?