Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4042 LANDED 9:18 AM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 4042 · ORD → OMA

took off 8:06 AM CT · landed 9:18 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4042 · ORD → OMA

Odds over time