Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4092 · DFW → SGF
departs 8:23 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
SGF usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.