MQ 4105 · TYS → ORD

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4105 · TYS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?