Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4117
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4117 · ORD → GRR
departs 2:56 PM CT · arrives 5:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.