MQ 4121 · GRB → ORD

departs 5:38 AM CT · arrives 6:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

GRB (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4121 · GRB → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?