Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
MQ 4126 · PHX → TUS
departs 5:05 PM MT · arrives 5:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.