Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4128 · SHV → DFW
departs 8:16 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SHV (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.