Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4130 · DFW → SHV
departs 1:03 PM CT · arrives 2:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SHV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SHV?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SHV that day
↑
Other factors
↓
SHV usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
SHV (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.