Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4152
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 4152 · DFW → SDF
departs 2:17 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.