MQ 4153 · IAH → PHX

departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 6:42 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4153 · IAH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?