Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4155 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:27 AM CT, ETA 9:54 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 4155 · ORD → TUL

took off 8:27 AM CT · expected to land 9:54 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4155 · ORD → TUL

Odds over time