MQ 4189 · ATW → DFW

took off 6:08 AM CT · expected to land 8:16 AM CT (scheduled 6:09 AM CT → 9:03 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW

Weather at each end

ATW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4189 · ATW → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?