MQ 4230 · DFW → TRI

departs 1:44 PM CT · arrives 5:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TRI?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at TRI that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

TRI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4230 · DFW → TRI

Odds over time

How late will it get to TRI?