Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4290
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4290 · CID → DFW
departs 7:28 AM CT · arrives 9:48 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
CID is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.