Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9871 LANDED 11:27 AM MT, ~6 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

MQ 9871 · DFW → PHX

took off 11:22 AM CT · landed 11:27 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.16 in

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 9871 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time