OH 5089 · PHL → RIC

departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 3:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at RIC that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RIC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

RIC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5089 · PHL → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?