Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5243 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5243 · DFW → JAN

departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 8:44 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at JAN that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into JAN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

JAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5243 · DFW → JAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAN?