Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5249 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

OH 5249 · PHL → LEX

departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LEX that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.23 in

LEX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5249 · PHL → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?