Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

OH 5266 · PHL → MEM

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.10 in

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5266 · PHL → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?