OH 5326 · BTV → PHL

departs 7:47 PM ET · arrives 9:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5326 · BTV → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?