OH 5338 · PHL → LEX

departs 9:58 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

LEX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5338 · PHL → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?