Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5644 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5644 · PHL → RDU

departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.32 in

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5644 · PHL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?