OO 176 · DTW → ESC

departs 9:31 PM ET · arrives 10:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ESC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ESC?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Arrivals into ESC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

ESC (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 176 · DTW → ESC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ESC?