OO 409 · ORD → ATW

departs 10:27 AM CT · arrives 11:31 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 409 · ORD → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?