OO 410 · SFO → MRY

departs 9:14 PM PT · arrives 10:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ MRY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 410 · SFO → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?