OO 4232 · DTW → APN

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at APN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to APN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Arrivals into APN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

APN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4232 · DTW → APN

Odds over time

How late will it get to APN?