OO 4796 · SEA → LAX

departs 4:39 PM PT · arrives 7:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +30 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4796 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?