OO 5323 · SMF → SFO

departs 2:11 PM PT · arrives 3:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5323 · SMF → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?