OO 545 · LAX → SBA

departs 10:40 PM PT · arrives 11:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 545 · LAX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?