OO 5460 · SFO → PHX

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 3:04 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5460 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?