OO 5627 · SFO → MRY

departs 5:28 PM PT · arrives 6:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into MRY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5627 · SFO → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?