OO 5842 · SFO → SEA

took off 2:22 PM PT · expected to land 3:55 PM PT (scheduled 2:08 PM PT → 4:17 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5842 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?